Then I'll go back to school and become a nurse, so I'll get a Master's in nursing. Steve, where are you? To date, they have been unable to move beyond agreement on obvious generalities. For all the talk of recovery, this decade began with the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression. Furthermore, our current good times look a less good under the surface. Last January, China's government forecast that the country's economy - which, at the time, was experiencing a strong rebound after the initial pandemic slowdown - would grow by 5.5% in 2022. The campaign to extend health insurance and reform the delivery of health care did not begin when president Obama announced his legislative program in 2009. But I've had to downsize to a very small home and give up air conditioning and heating so my son and I can eat. Resolution Ventures newsletter, Be the first to hear about our events, or receive our weekly round-up of political economic research, those entering the labour market during the crisis. MARIAH: Well, you were talking about people who perhaps had to make decisions that they didn't think they'd be making. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. People were gaining confidence. I didn't really have a very prolific family. In fact, hold on to your answer because I want to pursue that with you a little deeper in terms of how long we are likely to remain in this cycle and whether or not the stories that we are hearing from our listeners - and we're going to hear another one in just a minute - does this permanently change their behavior in terms of how they spend, how they work, how they pursue jobs? 6 7 Hundreds of thousands of people were displaced, and more than 1,800 were killed or missing. Still, they should guard against putting into place the types of capital controls that will distort the global allocation of resources over time; deficit countries for their part must resist any protectionist pressures that may intensify as unemployment remains high. And, of course, there is the world expo in Shanghai from May to October, where the mascot Haibao (symbolized by the character ren , meaning person) expects to greet 70m visitors and 200 participating countries. The Feds decision to implement QE2, a policy designed to both spur economic growth and return inflation to a more desirable long-run level, represented a step toward meeting its dual mandate. The inflation rate was extremely high in 1979 and 1980. I just wanted to speak to the fact that all those unemployment rates look like a wonderful thing, as long as you're not a person with a disability. And, but once inflation was Mr. GREENHOUSE: you know, was brought under control, Paul Volcker, the Fed stepped on the accelerator, they cut interest rates very, very seriously and that enabled the economy to really take off under President Reagan. In addition, employers have added to the work week of employees who are already on their payrolls. Mr. GREENHOUSE: Some extended unemployment benefits are scheduled to expire tonight; 120,000 people who are unemployed will lose their benefits 1.2 million, 1.2 million will lose their benefits at once. Projected increases in federal health care spending account for more than all of the anticipated increases in federal budget deficits. There are respectable arguments here, too. Make money in 2010: The economy . (Brookings Trustee Ann Fudge and I were among the six public members). The work week has increased a half hour since last December, or 1%. I guess they don't have any choice. Japan's economy shrank slightly in the final quarter of 2010 but analysts expect a recovery this year as stronger exports to China and other parts of fast-growing Asia offset persistently weak . Here's someone who is a veteran, who served the nation for a long time. Despite the recession, states continue to experiment with climate policy. Hourly wages and the average work week have improved over the past year, boosting the pre-tax earnings of employees. Thus, the ACA is just a first step-but an extremely significant one-in a long-term program to slow the growth of U.S. health care spending, something that is a necessary precondition for restoring long-term fiscal balance and an important component of a program to improve economic efficiency. There are still, you know, five people looking for work for every job opening. The vulnerable end up much, you know, worse off. So I guess that's the upside. This is a list of earthquakes in 2022. I'm very - I'm scared of the future. But President Obama was talking up the supposed debt crisis as early as 2011; his various economic officials are still pounding the austerity drums under Trump; Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is a fan of pay-for rules, which would effectively neuter the stimulative power of new spending. Some of the disparate moving parts of climate policy came to a halt in 2010, but other parts chugged on. These concerns merit serious discussion but reasonable counter-arguments can be made. Likewise, going online with mobile phones will spread further, as WiMax and other technologies will be developed. Chinas population will nevertheless grow to an expected 1.46 billion in 2030, and then decrease slowly. To reduce forbearance and capture, regulators may get better remuneration and clearer targets which they have to meet (and sanctions in case of failures). But there is always some bad luck in (unintelligible). And I have a son who just graduated high school less than six months ago. Employment may be widely available again, but a lot of that employment is fundamentally worse than it was in decades past. It's a tough situation that you are describing. October 10 - Hwang Jang-yop, politician in North Korea who defected to South Korea, heart attack. Or maybe not. This is from Fred. 5. The ACA takes a giant step toward achieving that goal. Then there was their huge bust, near bankruptcy, of General Motors and Chrysler two or three years ago. At the end of 2009, 40% of the unemployed had been without work for 6 months or longer. The Republican leadership has sworn to seek repeal of the ACA. What has been notable about QE2 is the considerable backlash that it has spurred. But it also implied higher odds on very weak economic performance in the short- to medium-term while austerity was being phased in. When they lose their jobs, they lose their health insurance, too. The percentage of working-age Americans who have jobs only returned to its pre-Great Recession peak in the last few months. My daughters, when I came home from work and said I'd been let go, they said: What's going to happen to us? Workers who worried at the beginning of 2010 about their chances of keeping their jobs could breathe a little easier by years end. The third biggest sports event, the Winter Olympic Games, will take place in Vancouver starting February 12, whereas the second largest, the FIFA soccer world cup, is hosted by South Africa and begins in June. (Please see http://www.brookings.edu/papers/2009/1123_narrative_elliott_baily.aspx for a longer discussion of this.). We can lay a lot of blame for this on the Republican Party, which was mendaciously hell-bent on austerity when Democrats held the White House, but happy to strike big spending deals once they were back in power. And I'm a 39-year-old professional woman who was laid off from an organization in June, have been unable to find a job and seriously considering moving back in with my mother, who is in her 70s. Growth figures for the fourth quarter also defied expectations of a slowdown, rising to 9. . That objective that is almost certainly out of reach as long as Democrats control the Senate and president Obama can veto any repeal legislation. The federal government must design practical rules not only to guide the states in providing subsidies but also to enable the Internal Revenue Service to recapture over-payments made to people who turn out not to be eligible for them. Even if we accepted that the government committed the equivalent of arson, the resulting fire still showed us a host of vulnerabilities that needed to be fixed. Naoki Abe Friday, February 12, 2010 In the 1990s, the Japanese economy suffered a prolonged recession that followed the collapse of the fabled economic bubble of the 1980s. The two-week meeting of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Cancn, Mexico, ended in mid-December with a modest agreement to monitor and verify emissions pledges made under the Copenhagen Accord last year. Steve, who just called, is smart. Now, before you answer that, let's take this let me read something to you that we just got. And, well, you'd be surprised at the things you can cut back on, you know. It's hurting. During the decade of the 1960s, labor pro-ductivity grew at an annual average rate of 2.9 percent, spurred by the aerospace . And what's very weird now, Tony, is that a lot of people have lost that optimism. Progress toward full job market recovery has been achingly slow, however. The Nikkei was down 3%, the FTSE 100 was down 2.4%, and the German DAX down 4.3% for its worst opening day to a new year in history. http://www.economist.com/theworldin/, Masdar City My credit went down the drain because, you know, the first bills had to come first and, you know, necessities. High unemployment continues to force many Americans into difficult decisions on small and sometimes large scales. The political danger facing the unemployed is that surging business profitability and the improving fortunes of employees will cause voters to lose sight of the daunting problems confronting the long-term unemployed. I was privileged to serve on both of them and the experience left me fairly optimistic that our political system can pull itself together and reach a bipartisan compromise in time to avert a debt catastrophe. Hints for the future of the automotive industry could be seenat the shows in Detroit (January) and Geneva (March). COX: Now, we have asked people to call us and tell us their stories, how they are coping or surviving or whatever it is they are doing and how the economy has whipsawed them this year. They keep wanting things to get better, but they still see the unemployment rate pretty high, 9.6 percent. So there's, like, there are blockages in the employment market nowadays that's making it harder for, you know, people to even find their first jobs. For teenagers, it's up around 20 percent. 10. And we - it would be great to get into this virtuous cycle, and I don't know Mr. GREENHOUSE: why doesn't it happen. Finally, you know, pulled a job off and I just want to wish - for everyone out there that's having difficulty finding one, that - just keep your hopes up and it'll come. And, although global imbalances earlier in the 2000s did not directly cause the economic crisis as many had feared, and banking crises can readily occur in countries running large surpluses as Japan demonstrated in the 1990s, imbalances contributed to the conditions that led to the financial crisis in the United States and other industrial economies. Shortly after the election the co-chairs produced a bold draft plan for the Commission to discuss. I would think that that's not an uncommon thing at all, Steven, people moving in with family in order to survive. He reformed the relationship between business and government, but kept capitalism in place, rather than replacing it with socialism or fascism or some other -ism. Similarly, Dodd-Frank rebalances and realigns the financial system, but does not switch to a radically different approach. COX: Let's go to Nashville, Tennessee. Should Republicans win the White House and a Senate majority, repeal may be possible. We are talking about what has changed in the economy this year and what hasn't for you. Even with the recent improvement in job vacancies, the BLS survey shows that job openings are currently running almost one-sixth below the average rate over the 2000-2007 period. Spreads on the debt of a number of European countries continued to be very wide. Back during the Reagan administration was the last major one. And I walked away from teaching to homeschool my son at the worst time, I guess, as far as the economy, and it took me over a year to find a job. The sluggish growth of the advanced economies, coupled with the imperative for fiscal consolidation in many places, means that interest rates there are very low and are likely to be extraordinarily depressed for some time to come. It's the only program that's appropriate for his needs. COX: That was going to be my question, whether or not we know there's a high level of frustration that people are feeling, but whether or not that has shifted into pessimism. In the 2010s, productivity growth the rate at which the economy learns to create more value with less inputs also fell lower than it's been in decades. The G-20 has made dealing with imbalances a high priority and has enlisted the IMF in a Mutual Assessment Process to help countries understand the spillover effects of their policies and devise consistent strategies to advance the goals of higher, more balanced, and more sustainable global output. In sum, 2010 was a year of only slight progress for the unemployed but real gains for workers who still have jobs. Things will be worse for my kids. The action is, again, in Asia: By January 1, China and the ten ASEAN countries established a free trade zone combining 1.9bn people and eliminating tariffs on 90% of their traded goods. Further, with the China-ASEAN free trade, jobs e.g. Indeed, nothing was written down for fear some leaked draft document would be misused on the campaign trail. COX: I would think thank you very much for that, and good luck also, if that turns out to be what you need and have to do. And I had been doing wind turbine work, working on the electric turbines that, you know, generate electricity from the wind. Excerpt: The Return to Fiscal Sanity Began in 2010Or Did It? I draw an analogy with Franklin Roosevelts actions in the Great Depression. At the same time, many emerging market economies are growing strongly, are much closer to full employment, and are concerned about inflation and asset price bubbles arising from the inflows of capital from the advanced economies. It remains open whether carbon capture and storage can make a real difference already in 2010 and whether new nuclear power plants and sizeable new renewable energy sources will come anytime soon to America. 2010 will see at least some policy moves in the right direction, but midterm elections in the US and calamities elsewhere will prevent the restructuring of financial markets from being completed in 2010. And I read something, you know, very good saying that, you know, FDR, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, had the good luck of being - of coming into office three years after the Depression started, so people could say it's not FDR's fault, it's not the Democrat's fault, it's Herbert Hoover's fault. Public investment in things like infrastructure, research and development, education, and more is an enormous source of demand for the economy. Only earthquakes of magnitude 6 or above are included, unless they result in significant damage and/or casualties, or are notable for some other reason. Challenges exist: In 2010 China is at the peak of its generational dividend: The dependency ratio will bottom out in 2010 at 0.4 and start to increase due to the (recently somewhat more lenient) one-child policy. The Haitian government's official count was more than 300,000, but other . But by then the damage was done. A sizeable fraction of this need has been met with temporary workers. Just go to npr.org, and click on TALK OF THE NATION. 9 Almost 6 million jobs were lost in the 12 months prior to that. LISA: Well, I was just recently laid off after working for the same organization for 10 years. BP - this is according to this person: Don't forget these hardworking folks. 4.04.9. Mr. GREENHOUSE: Yes. (Since the US faces a relatively easy group with Algeria, Slovenia and England, we could hope for another exploit like in 2002.) And you can join the conversation at our website. Mr. GREENHOUSE: I think a lot of people who had steady jobs, who thought they were doing quite well, who were sort of living the American dream, all of a sudden get laid off and they think, wow, this happened to me and I have to rethink my future, I have to reset things. In the United States we saw several bi-partisan efforts to lay out paths to fiscal sustainability. You know, first I'll do this. I learned that. All fifty states need to set up health insurance exchanges to provide subsidies to millions of Americans. Steven Greenhouse is our guest, labor and workplace correspondent for the New York Times, also author of "The Big Squeeze: Tough Times for the American Worker.". You are - you know, they think he was in office when the Lehman collapse happened. COX: Let's put this in some historical perspective if we can, Steven. Chief Executive So they're staying in the workforce until the age of 68 or 70, 72. You know, I know a lot of employers, Jenny, are giving preferences to veterans, and hopefully, you might be able to link up with those, you know, one of those employers and get something that pays somewhat more. But nowhere did the issues become more pressing than in Europe, where the governments of several countries faced growing doubts about their ability to meet their obligations now or in the future. So when a biotech engineer can't even get a job, things have - things, Steven, must really be bad. During the 2016 election, mainstream progressive economists openly mocked their heterodox peers for suggesting the economy was much further below full capacity than everyone thought. But the thing that I'm hearing, and we're going to go to another call in just a second, is that people are finding a way. And the state Department of Vocational Rehabilitation will not pay for the highly specialized program he needs to get through college. 2010 was the year the difficult challenge of putting government debts and deficits on a more sustainable path over the long-run came much more clearly into focus. For workers laid off between September 2008 and May 2010 the federal government also offered to subsidize two-thirds of the cost of employer-sponsored health insurance premiums for workers covered by an employer health plan. Business profitability has returned, but total wage and salary disbursements remain lower than they were before the recession began. Republicans vote to back Kevin McCarthy as Speaker, Father of UVA shooting suspect apologizes, says he 'still can't believe' what happened, Steve Jobs' used Birkenstocks sell at auction for $218,000, 5 toons about the aftermath of the midterms, it's also something that almost never happens, also fell lower than it's been in decades, to automatically increase during recessions, the limits of what monetary policy can achieve on its own. What are some of the significant changes the economy has forced you to make this year, you the listener, that you hadn't foreseen? COX: Let's take another call. Chinas rebalancing to more domestic consumption will be supported by policy moves and the trade deficit is likely to shrink by half, down to 5% of the GDP, but the real economy will shift only slowly. Do you know why it doesn't happen? The restaurants are closing due to no business, and the families of fishermen are in bad shape. The United States passed the Dodd-Frank Act this summer, legislation which comprehensively rewrote the rules across a wide range of financial activities. You're listening to TALK OF THE NATION from NPR News. http://en.expo2010.cn, The World in 2010: The Top Ten Economic and Financial Issues, Why We Should Rethink Fixed Standards on Leverage, and Capital and the Volcker-Rule. More recently, it's begun cutting rates again, in recognition of the recovery's tepidness. As the crisis phase of financial and economic turmoil receded in the latter part of 2009 and 2010 (though for an exception to this see the Forum posting on sovereign debt problems), attention of global economic policymakers turned increasingly to global imbalances-large and persistent current account deficits and surpluses. Visit our website terms of use and permissions pages at www.npr.org for further information. While the hunt for global commodities continues, pipeline construction will result in some spats in Eastern Europe and Asia. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) conducts a poll of employers every month to determine the number of job openings, new hires, and recent job separations. STEVE: How are you doing? And it's a blessing, but it's very frustrating because I'm not getting younger, and I'm widowed, and it's scary. She trained to be a teacher when, I guess at the time when so many people were saying become teachers, we have to improve the nation's schools. . On Global Imbalances Donald Kohn, Senior Fellow, Economic Studies. You can eat a lot of ramen noodles. Further, plans to fix public finance (growing deficits and debts) will be developed, but may fall short of expectations and many countries will continue to live beyond their intergenerationally equitable and sustainable means. As President, Obama oversaw a moderate fiscal expansion which helped to promote economic recovery and falling unemployment. In fact, the Atlanta Fed finds that wage growth's peak in 2007 never got as high as its peak in 2000 a similar pattern to prime-age employment. A high, stubborn, stagnant unemployment rate . Equally important for workers well-being, the chances of a layoff have declined. A unified financial regulator is unlikely to emerge (and may not even work better, as the UKs FSA showed). Is there a lot of that, people moving around to get jobs? I'm going to do this job. It would open the door to attempts to win over with voters by boosting growth and employment over the short run at the cost of higher inflation over the long run. Peterson Institute for International Economics, but reasonable counter-arguments can be made, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Spring 2017, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Fall 2016, http://www.brookings.edu/reports/2010/1007_atlantic_council_elliott.aspx, http://www.brookings.edu/papers/2009/1123_narrative_elliott_baily.aspx, How the EPAs lax regulation of dangerous pesticides is hurting public health and the US economy. What happened after the 2010 Haiti earthquake? The situation of the unemployed has not improved much over the past year. Now, we've had this housing bust and this, you know, this credit crisis, and there's not, you know, the Federal Reserve just can't, you know, step on the accelerator and fix things because, you know, banks have so many problems, there's so many foreclosures, unemployment is so high that it's really much, much harder to, you know, turn things around. And after a few months, still on unemployment and relying on friends to, you know, keep my - you know, keep it up for me. COX: I want to go back to this concept of resetting, if I can, with you, Steven. August 12 - Andr Kim, 74, fashion designer, pneumonia and colorectal cancer. Despite some skirmishes, Bernanke will probably be confirmed as Fed chairman, and will face the challenge to support the US economy while reducing the extraordinary policy measures to prevent inflation. This stretch of. It has grown faster than income for half a century and is projected to continue indefinitely. While Republican successes in the 2010 mid-term elections owed much to public dissatisfaction with the state of the U.S. economy, unease about health care reform also played a part. There are also aspects that do more harm than good, such as the Volcker Rule. The French, who lead the G-20 in 2011, have made achieving progress on imbalances and on reforming the system a high priority for next year. Now a lot of - you know, big change over the past few years is kids are graduating from college can't find a job and they're moving back in with their parents much more than before. Mr. GREENHOUSE: I was, you know, just - I spent a few weeks in Ohio, interviewing a lot of workers and communities that have lost a lot of manufacturing jobs. By law, the Federal Reserve has a mandate to set monetary policy so as to promote the dual goal of stable prices and maximum employment. COX: Once again, I should say - 2010, let's begin there, almost over. Asia has rebounded and even Western countries will recover, but slowly; however, many structural problems remain: Financial markets remain weak and current labor laws in some Western countries are too rigid so that high unemployment levels are likely to persist for some years. The number of job openings has risen since the low point in early 2009, but job availability is not nearly high enough to put a major dent in unemployment. There are respectable arguments for this, but they disregard the clear evidence of the myriad of other problems in the system. This is Larry from Cedar Key, Florida. So what about these I don't want to call them subgroups of the overall population but these various, identifiable pockets who are having particular and peculiar problems when it comes to getting employment? If the 2020s are going to be any better, our leaders will have to learn from their mistakes or simply be replaced. But don't give up. Am I going to be able to maintain my lifestyle, which is very simple, on $25,000 a year? Mr. GREENHOUSE: Yes and no. COX: (Unintelligible) growth, that's supposed to be a growth industry, isn't it? COX: I understand. Hopefully the employer that laid you off maybe in two months will need some more workers and might call you back. In its defense, the Federal Reserve did cut interest rates to zero soon after the Great Recession, in an effort to boost the economy. Many observers saw the European experience as underlining the need for the United States to take action now to put its own fiscal house in order. Everyone would be required to carry health insurance. She mentioned another group, the disabled. They hope they'll get a, say, mark-, you know, marketing job, or they a lot of people are studying in health care. COX: That was my question to you. Let's talk to Leanne(ph) from Thomasville, Georgia. They get an MBA. Well, good for you, and thank you very much, Leanne, for the call. 5.05.9. I would think, and you can tell me whether this is accurate or not, Steven, that an area like that might be harder hit than other parts of the country. I think they feel that the government isn't doing enough to turn things around. At the very beginning of the 2010s, government spending contributed to a big chunk of economic growth, as the 2009 stimulus played out and social programs like unemployment benefits and food stamps kicked in. The other problem was monetary policy. Once the recovery from 2008 began, the economy just started growing again at a permanently lower trend line. Neal Conan is away. 21 Debt was driven by government spending and reduced revenue from taxes, thanks to slow economic growth. All rights reserved. They may see it as yet another failed effort to enforce changes in a system virtually all observers see as flawed and seriously dysfunctional. The most striking feature of the past year has been the widening gap between the outlook for Americans whove held on to their jobs and their less fortunate peers who got laid off. I was able to get unemployment but not, you know, it doesn't it didn't cover the bills. The country's on the wrong track. And another state that's really hurting, of course, is Michigan because it's suffering, you know, it's been hurting for years from the decline of manufacturing, especially auto manufacturing. http://www.masdarcity.ae Since late spring the average duration of on-going unemployment spells has dropped about 4%. Gaps and lapses in regulation and supervision in the United States and Europe allowed the resulting leverage, lax lending practices, and maturity transformation to build to dangerous levels that proved all too vulnerable to a softening in house prices and onset of borrower repayment problems. What happened: Consumer prices fell 1.3% over the past year . The economy got steadily worse in the next two years, the opposition party gained seats in the midterm election, but Reagan weathered the storm and came out better than ever. Visit our corporate site at https://futureplc.comThe Week is a registered trade mark. Future US LLC, 10th floor, 1100 13th Street NW, Washington, DC 20005. While China, and even more so Russia will need to rebalance their economies, watch for developments in India, South Africa, Brazil, which will have parliamentary elections in 2010, and especially Indonesia. Mr. GREENHOUSE: Oh, absolutely, Tony. In an election year marked by persistently high unemployment, Republican opponents successfully characterized the effort as a job-killing energy tax, despite Democrats hailing its potential to build a green-job-creating new energy economy. Sadly, neither side made a case for a sensible, predictable, deficit-reducing economy-wide price signal on carbon. Of course its more complicated than that. 32, survived a fall ballot measure that would have delayed the rules until the unemployment rate dropped to no more than 5.5 percent. 16 May - Sibu by-election, 2010, Democratic Action Party (DAP . I know, you know, some physically disabled people can do, you know, wonderfully as, you know, computer programmers. COX: Let's take another call. Thank you for the call. Alice Rivlin, Senior Fellow, Economic Studies. The next logical step has been to ease financial conditions by lowering still-positive longer-term interest rates; purchasing longer-term assets is simply a means to that end. The terrible financial crisis, whose adverse effects we are still feeling, highlighted a host of flaws in finance and its regulation and therefore Congress found it necessary to tackle a myriad of problems in the form of the Dodd-Frank Act. I like your show. And then - and you know, I'm only 23 years old, so I can't really go back to school until I'm 24 because I really don't have any, you know, family background because the scholarship makes it really difficult to get any, you know, financial aid. 2010 will see the rapid expansion of ebook readers with more devices, more competition and lower prices. After vigorous interaction with the co-chairs a somewhat altered plan was adopted by 60 percent of the members. Barack Obama served as President from Jan 2009 - Jan 2017. I'm a single parent, and so it's pretty stressful. And, you know, it's not easy, and, you know, a rising tide lifts all boats. Unemployment rates, climate change, the Federal Reserve and sovereign debt were among the top stories. Mr. GREENHOUSE: I'm sorry, Dina. Torsten The budget proposal in early February will provide some hints and open the battle. Analysts disagree on whether the Affordable Care Act (ACA), signed into law by president Obama on March 23, 2010 should be regarded as a major economic event of 2010, the most important social legislation in decades, both, or neither. Florida also had a huge housing boom. Continuation of these imbalances was seen as posing challenges for economic recovery and for the stability of employment and activity once economies returned to full employment. 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